As the 44th Vice President of the United States, Dan Quayle made dozens of diplomatic trips, many aimed at helping to shape the post-Cold War Soviet Union. As a voter, Quayle has cast his ballot for Donald Trump in three consecutive presidential elections. But when you put those two things together, the current view from the former V.P. comes to a pessimistic conclusion about the current posture in U.S.-Russia relations and the war in Ukraine.
“We are not approaching the end,” Quayle, who is now chairman of Cerberus Global Investments, said at the CNBC CEO Council Summit in Arizona on Tuesday. “Putin has no desire to see this come to a conclusion until he really dismantles Ukraine,” he said.
While Quayle is clear on Putin’s thinking, it is Trump’s strategy that mystifies him. “I do not understand Trump’s affinity for Putin and why he has not demanded anything here,” he said. “All he wants to do as president is deals … So, if you’re a dealmaker, what do you need? Leverage. What leverage is he trying to put on Putin? Zero. Absolutely zero,” Quayle said.
Over the weekend, Trump had posted on Truth Social ahead of talks with Russian and Ukrainian leaders, “HOPEFULLY IT WILL BE A PRODUCTIVE DAY, A CEASEFIRE WILL TAKE PLACE, AND THIS VERY VIOLENT WAR, A WAR THAT SHOULD HAVE NEVER HAPPENED, WILL END,” in his customary all-capitalized comments.
On Monday, after an over two-hour call between Trump and Putin, the president said he wanted the “bloodbath” to end, but there was little sign of a breakthrough, even as Trump said Russia and Ukraine would hold direct talks on a ceasefire “immediately,” on his social media platform. He also spoke to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday.
“Putin says he won’t agree to a ceasefire, he just wants to talk, Trump says OK,” Quayle told CNBC’s Sara Eisen in an interview at the CEO Council Summit. He said the lack of pressure also undermines a U.S. policy alliance with the European Union, that if Russia did not agree to a ceasefire there would be secondary sanctions. “Putin said let’s talk, and Trump says yes, and European leaders just had the rug pulled out from under them,” Quayle said. “I don’t think it will end any time soon,” he added.
Quayle’s view of the Russian playbook is that all along it’s been to “dismantle Ukraine, and time is on his side.”
And even though Putin has not been as successful as he would have liked on the battlefield, “he’s been very successful with Trump,” Quayle said, adding that Putin’s KGB background makes him and his circle well placed to know Trump’s “weakness and vulnerability and how to deal with him.”
While Quayle does not believe Trump can unilaterally “wash his hands” of the conflict when he finally realizes Putin has no interest in a ceasefire — “Congress has something to say about that and there is still bipartisan support for Ukraine,” he said — Quayle says the president has blown an opportunity to apply pressure in three ways that would work to change Putin’s approach.
To end the war, the U.S. needs “lots of money in Swiss banks that are Russian given to Ukraine,” Quayle said.
Second, the U.S. needs to give Ukraine even more weapons.
Third, there needs to be secondary sanctions on Russia.
“Suddenly, Putin would come to the table if you do those three things,” Quayle said. “He comes to the table tomorrow.”
But Quayle does not think this will happen. “It’s not what he believes, he doesn’t want to do anything substantial to bring pressure or leverage on Putin,” he said.
The strategy on Russia leaves Quayle perplexed. “I don’t have an answer,” he said.
While he noted that Trump is fond of saying it’s “Biden’s war,” he believes there will be political repercussions for the President’s already weakened popularity if Trump lets Ukraine fall. “You inherited this war, but it is on your watch, and if he completely walks away from Ukraine, which I don’t think he will, but he might, there will be a significant political price.”
“American people do not like war, but they do not like losing wars, and if he is viewed as the loser on this, there will be a price to pay, so he needs to figure it out,” Quayle said.
“He wants peace. He doesn’t like war, but then he is so one-sided, and that is a problem,” he added.
While Trump warned Zelenskyy that he was risking World War III in their infamous Oval Office meeting, Quayle says the bigger risk is the current Trump strategy: “You really want to talk about who is risking [WWIII]? Just let Russia gobble up Ukraine, and then Poland, and then the Balkans, and then you are going to be talking about World War III.”
On tariffs: ‘You call that a strategy?’
During the interview, Quayle also seemed perplexed by Trump’s tariffs strategy. “You call that a strategy?” he said in response to a question’s framing. “I don’t think there’s a strategy. It’s so top down. But it’s either the mad man theory or it’s gross incompetence, or maybe somewhere in between. … We’ll have to wait and see. In the short term, I don’t think there’s going to be a huge impact, but long term, capital expenditures are being delayed, supply chains are being disrupted. It will be inflationary down the road,” he said.
On China, he said there can be no total de-coupling between the two nations given $600 billion in trade, but companies are moving away from China as much as it is possible and where it is practicable as part of long-term planning. The Trump administration does realize the much bigger question is how to “prevent a hot war between the United States and China, not tomorrow or next month or two years from now, but down the road,” he said.
Quayle added that while Trump’s recent trip to the Middle East was “successful” and the deals are a win for the U.S. in terms of countering China’s growing influence in the wealthy, geopolitically sensitive region, his approach to Russia and Putin isn’t helping. Even though the former V.P. does not believe there is any near-term threat of a full invasion of Taiwan by China, certain smaller, relatively lightly populated islands closer to mainland China could be targeted. “China is watching Ukraine carefully because of Taiwan,” he said.
“Looking at the situation in Ukraine, and watching how Russia avoids these sanctions, and Russia is doing a good job of it. China is watching that. Xi Jinping is looking at that,” Quayle said.
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Source: CNBC