Myanmar’s fatal quake deepens political turmoil with no path to peace, experts say

Myanmar’s ruling military junta is seizing the aftermath of a deadly earthquake as an opportunity to regain control amid a grueling civil war. But a lasting ceasefire remains unlikely, analysts say.

The massive 7.7 magnitude earthquake two weeks ago, one of the strongest to hit Myanmar in a century, jolted a nation already devastated by a brutal civil war that displaced millions and decimated its economy.

The official death toll rose to 3,471 as of Sunday, with thousands injured or missing. The U.S. Geological Survey’s predictive modeling estimated the death toll to eventually top 10,000 and economic losses to exceed the war-torn country’s annual GDP, which stood at $66.8 billion in 2023, according to the World Bank.

Just hours after the quake, the ruling junta declared a state of emergency in the hardest-hit cities and issued a plea for international aid — a move that represents a stark contrast to the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis that hit the Asian nation in 2008. Then, the junta had initially rejected international aid, eventually resulting in deaths of over 84,000 with tens of thousands missing.

That shift in its response, described by some as “uncharacteristic,” sparked cautious hope for a political settlement between the junta and the resistance forces, as earlier natural disasters in the region had led to peace talks. In 2004, the Indian Ocean tsunami prompted a truce deal between the Indonesian government and local rebels to facilitate relief efforts.

However, analysts see little chance of a similar peace deal emerging in disaster-stricken Myanmar.

“The battle lines are etched too deeply, and there are almost no common grounds on which the junta and the opposition, including the warring ethnic armed groups, can come to the table for any meaningful dialogue,” said Angshuman Choudhury, a Singapore-based foreign policy analyst.

Any ceasefire declaration will likely be “temporary and highly vulnerable to be breached given the tensions on the ground,” he said, expecting the junta to “quietly use the aftermath of the quake to degrade resistance capabilities and gain an upper hand in the battlefield.”

Last Wednesday, the military declared a 20-day ceasefire lasting until April 22 to support humanitarian efforts while warning it would “respond accordingly” if the rebels initiated attacks.

Myanmar has descended into a political and humanitarian crisis since 2021 when its military ousted an elected government, sparking a multi-front civil war that has displaced 3.5 million and left its economy in tatters.

If anything, the earthquake may make Myanmar “even more of a failed and violent state,” said Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“The poor quake response — there is no way the junta could have a decent response — will only boost public anger and disgust at the ruling military, already disdained by much of the population,” Kurlantzick said, while “the opposition will be bolstered by people again, seeing the inadequacy of the junta in doing anything but killing people.”

Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), which monitors global conflicts, ranked Myanmar as the world’s second-most violent and dangerous place last year.

Around 90% of the nation’s 55-million population were exposed to political violence, ACLED noted. Its people also lack sufficient access to electricity, communications, healthcare, and education and are vulnerable to crimes, including human and drug trafficking.

The devastating earthquake struck at a time when the military junta had suffered battlefield defeats, losing control of substantial territories in Myanmar while its opponents advanced.

The earthquake’s aftermath has spurred the junta to “recalibrate their priorities — to continue to wage the civil war or to focus on practical and humanitarian needs,” said Yen Zhi Yi, a senior analyst in the National Security Studies Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

Despite the temporary and regional ceasefire, “it is unlikely to open up ample political space for peace deals as this goes beyond humanitarian concerns,” she added.

Before the ceasefire announcement, the military had remained on the war footing and conducted several airstrikes in the quake-stricken areas, according to Amnesty International reports.

The junta also sought to slow humanitarian efforts by maintaining tight security measures and used its forces to block aid supplies to quake-hit areas near the epicenter controlled by anti-government forces, according to the United Nations human rights office on Friday.

In an incident underscoring the challenges of delivering aid amid an ongoing civil war, the junta said its troops fired warning shots at a Chinese Red Cross convoy that failed to pull over in a conflict zone.

“The military junta has already shown through its continuing airstrikes that it will prioritize defeating the resistance over disaster relief,” said Scott Marciel, senior advisor at Bower Group Asia and former U.S. ambassador to Myanmar.

Nonetheless, the natural disaster has prompted the ostracized junta leader to engage with leaders from neighboring nations such as China, India and Southeast Asia, paving the way for a general election in December.

“The junta is clearly using the earthquake as a window of opportunity to bolster its diplomatic credentials in the region,” seeking to assert itself as the only rightful government in Myanmar, said Choudhury.

During a rare foreign trip following the devastating quake, junta chief Min Aung Hlaing, shunned by most world leaders, was warmly greeted by top Thai officials when he visited the capital city of Bangkok for a regional summit. On the summit’s sidelines, he met with Thai premier Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss post-earthquake rehabilitation efforts and strengthen bilateral ties.

China was one of the first to send aid supplies and relief workers to assist in the recovery effort in Myanmar, pledging 100 million yuan ($13.7 million) worth of supplies. The U.S., a key player in early efforts to deliver aid after Nargis, pledged a relatively modest $9 million in humanitarian donations to the Southeast Asian nation, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to slash foreign aid.

The charm offensive with other Asian leaders in the aftermath of the quake might offer an unexpected silver-lining for the junta to gain some favor in the upcoming election.

“Supporting the junta-hosted election equals to supporting a democratic transition process,” said Choudhury, adding that foreign nations may see it as the junta “moving toward some kind of a civilian government, although the reality is very different.”

The promised election was widely criticized as a sham to keep the military in power through proxies, given that dozens of political parties have been banned. Min Aung Hlaing reportedly said at last Friday’s summit that the election would proceed despite the disaster.