Hello, this is Dylan Butts writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.
Speaking on the economic fallout from the Iran war in a Cabinet meeting Thursday, President Donald Trump said the surge in oil prices and slump in the stock market had not been as severe as he expected, and predicted both would soon reverse.
It doesn’t appear that many global market participants agree with that more optimistic spin. But it does raise the question — how bad was he expecting?
What you need to know today
U.S. stock indexes fell again on Thursday, weighed by higher oil prices, as traders followed another mixed bag of developments tied to the Iran war.
That came as Trump extended a pause on potential U.S. attacks on Iran’s energy facilities to April 6, though he warned Iranian negotiators to “get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty.”
The president also labeled Iranian negotiators as “very different” and “strange,” claiming they were “begging” the U.S. to make a deal to end the now four-week war.
Trump had previously warned that the U.S. would decimate Iranian energy facilities unless they opened the vital Strait of Hormuz — something the President signaled is starting to happen.
He said Thursday that Iran had allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the strait this week as a “present” and a sign of good faith to the United States. Tehran has not publicly commented on the matter.
Meanwhile, Iran is preparing legislation that would impose tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian state-aligned media.
The developments came as Israel’s military said Iranian naval commander Alireza Tangsiri was killed in a strike, accusing him of being responsible for efforts to close the strategically vital waterway.
Despite signs that limited shipping traffic is continuing through the strait, markets remain uneasy about what a prolonged conflict means for the global economy.
European members of the G7 have warned ahead of a key summit on Thursday that the war is having a catastrophic impact on the global economy.
That concern is beginning to show up at the consumer level. More retail firms are warning of price hikes if the conflict extends for months, as higher shipping and energy costs feed into supply chains.
— Dylan Butts
And finally…
Iran war will spare no major economy, says OECD — but the UK is more vulnerable than others.
While the impact of the war in Iran is sparing no major global economy, the U.K. is predicted to bear the greatest economic hit of any developed market nation, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
In its latest economic report revising growth and inflation forecasts made in December, the OECD made steep revisions to the U.K.’s outlook.
It now predicts U.K. inflation to hit 4% this year — up 1.5 percentage points from its previous forecast — and for 2026 growth to languish at 0.5%, down 0.5 percentage points from its last review.
— Holly Ellyatt
Source: CNBC