HANOI, October 5 — Gold and Bitcoin surged to record highs on Saturday as mounting uncertainty over the U.S. government shutdown, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a weakening dollar drove investors into alternative and risk assets.
Bitcoin broke through $124,200, setting a new all-time high, while Ethereum advanced to nearly $4,530. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization exceeded $4.23 trillion, up roughly $470 billion in the past week.
Spot gold prices also climbed to a historic $3,886 per ounce, marking their seventh consecutive weekly gain and pushing the year-to-date increase to 48%. Vietnam’s SJC gold hit VND 139 million per tael, with gold rings trading around VND 135.6 million.
The synchronized rally across asset classes — from digital currencies to precious metals and equities — highlights a shift in global capital flows amid macroeconomic and policy uncertainty.
Safe-Haven Demand Amid U.S. Turmoil
The U.S. government entered its third day of shutdown, deepening concerns over fiscal stability and amplifying skepticism about the dollar’s global dominance. Analysts say the event has accelerated diversification away from dollar-denominated holdings.
Major U.S. equity indices also closed the week near record highs. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite all extended gains, buoyed by resilient corporate earnings and optimism over the global artificial intelligence (AI) boom.
“Despite fiscal disruptions, investors appear to be pricing in a short-term shutdown with limited impact,” said an analyst at a Hanoi-based brokerage. “The bigger driver remains the Fed’s likely pivot toward easing.”
Markets Price In Aggressive Fed Easing
According to CME FedWatch Tool, traders now assign a 96.2% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at its October 29 meeting, followed by an 86.3% chance of another reduction in December.
Rate-cut expectations strengthened after President Donald Trump signaled potential mass layoffs across federal agencies, and private employment data from ADP showed signs of cooling in the labor market.
“The data suggest the Fed will have sufficient justification to begin cutting,” said Matt Mena, a strategist at crypto platform 21Shares. “This environment is fueling demand for non-sovereign stores of value such as Bitcoin and gold.”
ETF Inflows Signal Institutional Confidence
Institutional appetite for digital assets is surging. Data from Farside Investors showed that U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs attracted a combined $985 million in inflows on October 3 — the highest in a month. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), managed by BlackRock, alone absorbed $792 million.
Over the past week, net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reached $3.24 billion, underscoring accelerating institutional participation.
“The ETF channel is driving a structural shift in market depth and liquidity,” analysts at Bitfinex noted, adding that renewed fiscal stimulus pledges from the Trump administration could extend Bitcoin’s rally.
Macro, Regulation, and Mining Pressures
Bitcoin’s rally is also supported by tightening supply dynamics. U.S. lawmakers have proposed special consumption taxes on electricity used for crypto mining, while data from TheMinerMagz shows that the average cost to mine one Bitcoin surpassed $70,000 in Q2 2025.
Meanwhile, the crypto market is entering what traders call “Uptober”, a historically bullish period for Bitcoin. Rising momentum and long positions are amplifying FOMO (fear of missing out), raising the risk of a sharp short squeeze.
“Technical momentum is strong, and if Bitcoin clears resistance, it could quickly test new highs,” said one Singapore-based trader.
Outlook: Bullish but Volatile
Economist Noelle Acheson, author of Crypto Is Macro Now, said Bitcoin could reach $130,000 in the near term, driven by institutional demand and macro tailwinds.
However, analysts warned of volatility ahead. A breakthrough in U.S. budget talks or a more hawkish stance from the Fed could trigger a correction across both gold and crypto markets.
“The current rally is built on expectations of easier policy,” one strategist noted. “If those expectations reverse, so will the markets.”
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Source: Vietnam Insider