2022: How long will it take for Vietnam’s economy to catch up with Singapore and Thailand.

The number of 197 years that Vietnam needed to catch up with Singapore, given at that time, could not help but surprise many people. 

When talking with Mr. IL Houng Lee, the reporter quoted the forecast of some researchers: Vietnam’s per capita income in 2005 reached over 600 USD (according to the IMF, it was only 552 USD). Some Vietnamese researchers hypothesize that  if the richer countries in ASEAN stop developing , it will take Vietnam about 5 years to catch up with Indonesia and the Philippines, 20 years with Thailand, 24 years with Malaysia, 38 years with Brunei and 40 years with Singapore.

Mr. IL Houng Lee said that these analyzes are very interesting and can accurately reflect the real disparity in economic development. However, they also may not reflect the true extent of development disparities across economies.

If based on the assumption that all countries keep the average development rate as in the past 10 years , the time for Vietnam to catch up with other countries is somewhat longer.

“For example, it may take Vietnam 18 years to catch up with Indonesia, 34 years with Thailand and 197 years with Singapore. The gap with Singapore is so large because its development speed is also very fast in the past 10 years” – Mr. IL Houng Lee said. At that time, Vietnam was ranked 7th among 10 ASEAN member countries in terms of income level and economic development.

If still calculating according to this formula, how have the numbers changed at the present time?

Vietnam’s GDP per capita in 2021 will reach 3,743 USD (according to IMF). If we assume that the countries with more average GDP in ASEAN stop developing, it will take Vietnam about 3 years to catch up with Indonesia, 13 years with Thailand, 19 years with Malaysia and 50 years with Singapore.

If based on the assumption that all the countries mentioned above keep the average development rate as in the past 10 years (for the period 2012-2021), then it may take Vietnam 8 years to catch up. Indonesia, 22 years with Thailand, 56 years with Malaysia and 102 years with Singapore.

However, Mr. IL Houng Lee and the IMF experts also explained that the above time period is the result of purely mechanical calculations. It may not reflect the true disparity between Vietnam’s economy and other countries in the region.

In February 2022, Business Times (Singapore) commented in the article “Roar of a new Asian tiger”, about Vietnam: “Once among the poor countries The economy of this country (Vietnam – PV) is currently growing rapidly, the World Bank describes it as one of the most dynamic and emerging countries in the entire East region. ASIAN”.

Source: CafeF

Source: Vietnam Insider