S&P says Vietnam may lead Asia’s growth, but rising deficits could delay investment-grade ambitions
Vietnam is doubling down on a $200 billion infrastructure push to sustain one of Asia’s fastest growth trajectories—yet global rating agencies warn that the same strategy could widen fiscal deficits and test investor confidence in Southeast Asia’s rising star.
Hanoi is targeting annual economic expansion of at least 10% through 2030 while pursuing an upgrade to investment-grade status from agencies like S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s. The strategy hinges on massive public spending across hundreds of transport, energy, and urban development projects launched in 2025, collectively valued at around $200 billion—one of the most ambitious infrastructure programs in the region.
According to S&P, Vietnam is expected to remain Asia’s fastest-growing economy after India through 2028, with projected annual growth of 6.7%. The country already delivered an 8% expansion last year, ranking second in Asia behind Taiwan. This performance is underpinned by strong export momentum, particularly in electronics, where Vietnam has become a critical manufacturing hub for multinational corporations seeking supply chain diversification beyond China.
However, this growth model comes with trade-offs. “The government’s commitment to expanding infrastructure investment will likely bring more years of strong growth,” said Kim Eng Tan of S&P. “But such expenditure may lead to larger fiscal deficits and smaller current account surpluses, offsetting some of its gains.” For global investors, this signals a familiar dilemma: growth acceleration versus macroeconomic stability.
Vietnam’s sovereign credit profile remains just below investment grade, with S&P maintaining its BB+ long-term rating. The agency highlights structural risks in the banking system, including regulatory gaps and limited transparency, as key constraints. It has also flagged concerns over rising public debt, warning that sustained levels above 30% of GDP could pressure ratings. Government estimates already place debt at 33–34% of GDP by the end of 2025.
These warnings echo broader concerns from Moody’s, which has also cautioned that Vietnam’s infrastructure-led growth could drive up fiscal deficits and public debt in the coming years. For international capital markets, the implication is clear: Vietnam’s growth story remains compelling, but its path to investment-grade status is far from guaranteed.
The bigger question for global investors is whether Vietnam can strike the right balance between aggressive expansion and financial discipline. If successful, it could cement its position as Southeast Asia’s most dynamic growth engine. If not, the very investments designed to propel the economy forward may become the constraint that holds it back.
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Source: Vietnam Insider