China’s birthrate fell to a record low last year, underscoring a deepening demographic crisis as Beijing struggles to reverse a shrinking and aging population.
Births dropped to 5.6 per 1,000 people in 2025, down from 6.4 in 2023, marking the lowest level on record, according to data compiled by Wind Information going back to the 1950s.
About 7.9 million babies were born last year, sharply fewer than 9.5 million a year before, data from the statistics bureau showed Monday, despite Beijing’s efforts to encourage larger families through widening subsidies and expanded parental leave.
Even though the country began easing its stringent one-child policy nearly a decade ago, the birth rate continued to plummet — except for a brief spike in 2024, when it climbed to 6.77 per 1,000 people. The increase was widely attributed to the Year of the Dragon, which is traditionally considered an auspicious time to have children.
“The pace of the decline is striking, particularly in the absence of major shocks,” said Yue Su, principal economist at Economist Intelligence Unit.
She added that the boost from fertility stimulus measures has faded, while young people are delaying marriage and child-bearing plans due to growing economic pressures and intensifying competition in workplaces.
Policymakers have rolled out various incentives, including cash rewards and tax breaks for households with children under age 3. Beijing has also extended the maternity leave to 158 days, from 98 days in 2024.
China has faced a looming population crisis as its elderly population grew. The share of the population aged 60 and above rose to 23% in 2025, up from 22% in 2024.
The population fell for a fourth year, declining by 3.4 million to 1.405 billion last year, according to the statistics bureau.
Economists warned that a shrinking workforce and an ageing population pose major economic risks. Fewer babies mean a shrinking workforce in the future to support a rapidly growing cohort of retirees, piling pressure on the already-stretched pension system. It could also force higher social security contributions, squeezing disposable income for younger workers.
“A shrinking population implies a smaller consumer base in the future, increasing the risk of wider supply-demand imbalances,” Su noted, calling for a more forceful policy response on fertility.
World Bank data showed that the fertility rate, defined as births per woman, fell to 1 in China in 2023, the most recent year available, below the global average level of 2.2.
Source: CNBC