Vietnam is facing an unprecedented demographic shift as the country grapples with its lowest fertility rate on record, a worsening gender imbalance at birth, and the rapid aging of its population—challenges that threaten long-term sustainable development, according to Minister of Health Đào Hồng Lan. Mà
Speaking at an event marking World Population Day on July 11, Minister Lan emphasized that Vietnam’s total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen to its lowest historical level and is projected to continue declining in the years ahead. Citing data from the April 2024 population survey, she said the TFR dropped from 2.01 children per woman in 2022 to 1.96 in 2023 and 1.91 in 2024.
Demographic Challenges Intensify
In addition to declining birth rates, Vietnam is aging at a pace that exceeds many countries with similar income levels. In 2024, the average life expectancy in Vietnam reached 74.7 years. However, the number of healthy life years remains at just 65, highlighting a significant period in which many elderly citizens live with illness or disability.
Health and living conditions in remote and ethnic minority areas remain limited, while adolescent pregnancy continues to be a concern, particularly in the Central Highlands and Northern mountainous regions, where early and consanguineous marriages are still reported.
Severe Gender Imbalance at Birth
The issue of gender imbalance at birth, though under partial control, remains serious. The male-to-female birth ratio stood at 110.5 boys per 100 girls in 2009, rising to 111.5 in 2019, and reaching 111.4 in 2024. This imbalance is expected to have a long-term impact on Vietnam’s population structure. Projections by the General Statistics Office indicate that if the trend continues, Vietnam could face a surplus of 1.5 million men aged 15–49 by 2034—a number that could rise to 1.8 million by 2059.
Vietnam’s Human Development Index (HDI) ranking remains relatively low globally, placing 93rd among 193 countries and territories.
Policy Response and Proposed Legislation
To address these mounting demographic challenges, the Ministry of Health is drafting a new Population Law and a national program for health, population, and development for the 2026–2035 period.
The proposed legislation outlines key policy measures, including extended maternity leave, financial incentives or gifts for childbirth, and prenatal and newborn health screenings. Families with two daughters would be eligible for special benefits, including access to affordable housing and other support programs tailored to Vietnam’s evolving socio-economic conditions.
The draft law also includes targeted strategies to address gender imbalance at birth, with flexible implementation at both local and national levels. In parallel, the ministry is working to expand infrastructure and human resources for elderly care, offering scholarships and tuition support for students specializing in geriatric medicine at public medical universities.
The Ministry of Justice is scheduled to review the draft Population Law today. If approved, it will be submitted to the government and then to the National Assembly for consideration during its 10th session in October 2025.
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Source: Vietnam Insider