Vietnam’s equity market is riding a wave of optimism, with experts forecasting a potential return to its historic peak of 1,500 points—driven by robust capital inflows, policy reforms, and easing trade tensions.
After weathering the recent shock from U.S. reciprocal tariffs, Vietnam’s stock market has made a strong comeback. On June 3, the VN-Index closed at 1,347.25 points, rising nearly 11 points in a single session to reach its highest level in over three years. Trading volume surged on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), with liquidity up 23% from the previous session, totaling VND 22.89 trillion ($900 million).
Since hitting a bottom of 1,090 points in April 2025, the VN-Index has rebounded nearly 260 points—buoyed by bargain-hunting inflows and easing concerns over trade tariffs.
Analysts Set Bullish Targets: 1,500 Points Within Reach
The market’s recovery has fueled a wave of bullish sentiment. Several securities firms and financial experts are now forecasting that the VN-Index could surpass 1,500 points, assuming continued capital inflows and improved investor sentiment.
VNDirect Securities, in its latest strategic outlook, outlines three scenarios for 2025. Its base case targets 1,400 points, while the optimistic scenario projects the VN-Index could reach 1,520 points if Vietnam secures tariff concessions with the U.S. or pursues more aggressive monetary easing to stimulate growth.
VNDirect’s analysts note that the market’s P/E ratio has returned to around 12.9x—comparable to early 2025 levels and still attractive at a 16% discount to the 10-year average. Earnings per share (EPS) growth for listed companies on HoSE is expected to range from 12% to 17% this year, depending on tariff scenarios.
Maybank Securities Vietnam (MSVN) echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that a de-escalation in trade tensions and ongoing negotiations with the U.S. provide support for valuations. MSVN revised its VN-Index year-end forecast to 1,300 points (base case), 1,500 (best case), and 1,050 (worst case), with earnings growth projected at 7.7%–15.7% under various assumptions.
Industry Experts Weigh In
Mr. Duong Ngoc Dung, Deputy CEO and Chief Investment Officer of ROX Capital (a subsidiary of ROX Group), shared his optimistic outlook:
“I am confident the VN-Index could return to its peak of 1,500 points this year under favorable conditions—or early next year at the latest. Policy direction is clear, and now it’s about effective execution.” According to Mr. Dung, Resolution 68 and recent policy initiatives position the private sector as a key pillar of Vietnam’s economic strategy. With expected GDP growth of 8% or more from next year and the possibility of an MSCI or FTSE market upgrade, the ingredients for a market rally are in place.
Meanwhile, Nguyen Viet Duc, Head of Digital Sales at VPBank Securities (VPBankS), suggested the VN-Index could eventually climb as high as 1,900–2,000 points, citing long-term growth potential.
Key Catalysts Driving Market Momentum
Multiple developments have contributed to renewed investor optimism:
Trade Negotiations: Initial concerns over U.S. tariffs have subsided as Vietnam engages in structured, high-level talks to de-risk future trade disputes. The cooperative tone has laid a positive foundation for upcoming negotiations.
Pro-Growth Policies: Domestic stimulus measures—including expanded public investment and private sector support under Resolution 68-NQ/TW 2025—are expected to accelerate economic momentum and corporate earnings growth.
KRX System Launch: The long-awaited launch of the KRX trading system in May 2025 is a game-changer. It paves the way for modern features such as intraday trading, central clearing (CCP), and strengthens Vietnam’s case for a market upgrade to “Emerging Market” status by FTSE this September.
New Rules Supporting Foreign Investment: The State Bank of Vietnam recently issued Circular 03/2025/TT-NHNN, effective June 16, 2025, allowing foreign investors to open VND accounts for indirect investment. Analysts at BSC believe this, along with the Omnibus Trading Account (OTA) framework, will streamline foreign participation and accelerate market upgrading efforts.
Outlook
With improving macro fundamentals, robust corporate earnings forecasts, and supportive government initiatives, Vietnam’s stock market is increasingly viewed as a compelling destination for global investors.
As Mr. Dung of ROX Capital aptly noted, “If policy execution aligns with strategic intent, the stars may well be aligned for the VN-Index to reclaim—and surpass—its historic peak.”
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Source: Vietnam Insider