Vietnam’s Economy Projected to Exceed $500 Billion in 2025

The National Assembly has raised Vietnam’s GDP growth target for 2025 to over 8%, up from the previous 6.5-7% range, positioning the economy to surpass the $500 billion mark.

This decision, approved by nearly 97% of delegates on February 19, aims to accelerate economic growth and advance Vietnam toward high-income status by 2045.

Economic Growth and Projections

With an expected GDP exceeding $500 billion, the economy will grow by $24 billion compared to last year. GDP per capita is projected to reach approximately $5,000, while the inflation target has been adjusted to 4.5-5%. If these projections hold, Vietnam’s economy could rank 31st-33rd globally by size.

To achieve this ambitious growth rate, the National Assembly has outlined strategic priorities, including institutional reforms, accelerating infrastructure projects, and optimizing public investment capital flows.

Key Infrastructure Initiatives

Major infrastructure projects set for completion in 2025 include Long Thanh International Airport, Lach Huyen Regional Port, and the expansion of Tan Son Nhat and Noi Bai terminals. Additionally, construction will begin on Da Nang’s Lien Chieu Port. The government is also tasked with implementing financial centers in Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang, as well as developing free trade and border economic zones.

Public investment will play a significant role, with approximately VND 84.3 trillion ($3.4 billion) allocated from budget savings and increased revenue to expedite highway and coastal road projects. Budget efficiency measures will also include reducing regular expenditures by 10% and redirecting funds toward the Lao Cai – Hanoi – Hai Phong railway.

Fiscal and Investment Policies

If necessary, the fiscal deficit may be adjusted to 4-4.5% of GDP (from 3.8%) to secure additional resources for development. The nation’s public, government, and foreign debts may reach or exceed the warning threshold of 5% of GDP.

The National Assembly emphasized the need for a transparent and robust policy framework to ensure accountability and efficiency in public administration while fostering a dynamic environment for officials who take initiative in economic development.

Boosting Private Sector Investment

With an 8% GDP growth target, the private sector is expected to contribute around $96 billion out of the total $174 billion in social investment. However, private investment growth, averaging 7-9% per year, has recently slowed. To counter this, the government is directed to introduce favorable policies to support large-scale private enterprises while state-owned enterprises focus on major projects that drive socio-economic connectivity.

Additionally, regulatory reforms are needed to unlock the potential of key markets, including finance, securities, real estate, and science and technology. Immediate solutions must address current bottlenecks and create a more conducive environment for investors.

New Economic Drivers: Digital and Green Economy

Vietnam’s growth still relies on traditional drivers such as investment, consumption, and exports. In 2025, public investment is set at nearly VND 890 trillion ($35 billion), and total retail sales of goods and consumer services are expected to grow by at least 12%.

However, the government is urged to develop new growth engines, including the digital economy, green economy, and emerging technologies like AI, semiconductors, and big data. Policy frameworks must encourage innovation while ensuring scientists have the autonomy to drive breakthroughs. International-standard training programs for high-quality human resources will also be a priority to meet future labor market demands.

Strengthening Vietnam’s Role in Global Supply Chains

The government will implement measures to encourage foreign-invested enterprises (FDI) to transfer technology and increase the use of Vietnamese products, components, and services. These efforts will enhance local enterprises’ participation in global value chains, contributing to long-term economic resilience.

With the new GDP target and strategic reforms, Vietnam is positioning itself for robust growth and sustainable development, ensuring its economic competitiveness on the global stage.

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Source: Vietnam Insider