A stronger dollar historically tends to make dollar-denominated assets like bitcoin and gold expensive, leading to weakened demand in the short term.
XRP led crypto losses on the second-last day of this year as a stronger dollar weighed down global currencies and assets including bitcoin, with Asian equity markets sliding lower on Monday.
US equities declined on Friday and as investors trimmed positions amid uncertainty heading into year-end. An Asia Pacific index reversed 5-day gains, while futures contracts on U.S. indexes S&P 500 and Nasdaq pointed to losses in the U.S. session as of Asian afternoon hours.
BTC has historically moved in the opposite direction of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback’s exchange rate against major fiat currencies, including the euro.
Strength in the dollar largely comes ahead of President-elect Donald Trump stepping into office in late January, where he has promised several policies to help the economy in the coming years.
When the dollar strengthens, dollar-denominated assets become more attractive compared to cryptocurrencies. Investors prefer traditional investments like U.S. Treasuries or stocks, which yield returns in a strong dollar environment.
That, however, has dampened hopes of a continual crypto rally amid lower liquidity and year-end profit-taking among investors. A “Santa rally,” a colloquial term for bullish seasonality seen in December, has failed with a nearly 4% drop in BTC prices this month (it is still up 47% in the final quarter, data shows).
Elsewhere, scaled back expectations for continual interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have contributed to a fall in bitcoin and crypto prices in the past month.
Some, however, remain optimistic about long-term crypto policies helping bump the market despite the lack of rate cuts or a strong dollar.
“Unlike what many believe, Bitcoin and altcoins have not hit their price tops despite the ongoing consolidation fueled by the interest rate cut last week,” Maksym Sakharov, co-founder of WeFi, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message. “The selloffs recorded stem from the knee-jerk reaction by the market to uncertainties associated with macroeconomic policies. The Fed is preparing for higher figures next year despite inflation close to the 2% annual benchmark. This might shift the direction of monetary policy and impact the market.
“But when US President-elect Donald Trump takes office in the coming year, more corporate firms will enter the Bitcoin ecosystem as the regulations become favorable. If these projections play out, the price of Bitcoin may also decouple from macroeconomic factors that generally trigger its intense volatility,” Sakharov added.
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Source: Vietnam Insider