Vietnam’s GDP is projected to grow by 6.6% in 2025 and 6.3% in 2026, according to the latest forecast by the World Bank (WB).
The 2025 projection represents a 0.6 percentage point increase from the WB’s forecast in June 2024, while the 2026 forecast is 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous estimate.
Despite the optimistic outlook, the WB’s forecast remains lower than the Vietnamese government’s ambitious target of 8-10% growth for 2025. The government aims to use this period as a pivotal “breakthrough” to drive double-digit growth for the remainder of the 2020-2025 term.
Vietnam’s projected growth of 6.6% positions it as the third fastest-growing economy in Asia, following Bhutan and India, both forecasted at 7.2%. Other regional leaders include Mongolia (6.5%), the Philippines (6.1%), Cambodia (5.5%), and China (4.5%).
The WB’s forecast for Vietnam is higher than those of Oxford Economics (6.5%) and the IMF (6.1%), on par with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) at 6.6%, but lower than UOB Bank’s forecast of 7%.
Global Context
Globally, the WB forecasts GDP growth of 2.7% for 2025 and 2026, unchanged from projections for 2023 and 2024 but lower than the 3.2% recorded in 2022. This slowdown reflects weaker growth in major economies like China and the U.S.
Global trade is also expected to lag behind the 2010-2019 average in two-thirds of the world, signaling a challenging environment for international commerce.
Key global growth forecasts for 2025 include: India: 6.7%, China: 4.5%, United States: 2.3%, Brazil: 2.2%, Russia: 1.6%, Japan: 1.2%
Challenges for Developing Economies
World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill warned that developing economies face significant hurdles, including high public debt, low investment, declining labor productivity, and the impacts of climate change.
“The next 25 years will be more challenging than the past 25 years,” Gill remarked, highlighting the need for structural reforms and resilience-building to sustain growth in developing markets.
While Vietnam’s growth outlook remains robust, sustaining its momentum will require continued investment in productivity, infrastructure, and environmental sustainability.
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Source: Vietnam Insider