FIDT experts believe that in the initial economic recovery cycle, suitable asset classes for investment include real estate, stocks and bonds.
In the discussion on January 12, Mr. Ngo Thanh Huan, CEO of FIDT Investment Consulting and Asset Management Company, said that asset allocation is the most important issue in financial investment . To have an optimal portfolio, investors need to determine the risk profile and expected return, then determine the economic cycle and investment channels, and finally build an investment portfolio.
“Determining the economic cycle is a very important step, greatly affecting investment performance, but many people ignore or take it lightly. It is better to choose the wrong asset channel in the right cycle, than to choose the right place to invest in the wrong cycle,” Mr. Huan emphasized.
FIDT analysts believe that Vietnam is currently in the early stages of recovery. The telltale sign is that interest rates have bottomed out and are starting to tick up slightly but remain low for many years. On the macro front, GDP growth has exceeded the target of 7.09% in 2024, industrial production has also recovered. Business sales have grown but inventories are low. Credit demand is more easily met. On the stock market, stock prices have begun to rise.
With the assessment that the economy is in the initial recovery cycle, FIDT suggests that suitable investment channels will include real estate, securities (stocks, bonds) and gold.
“This year is a good time to buy real estate. If you need to increase your assets, you can buy stocks and bonds. As for gold, investors should not buy more but do not need to sell soon,” Mr. Huan added.
Accordingly, the FIDT analysis team offers three recommended portfolio proportions for 2025, depending on each person’s risk profile. In general, with the habits of the majority of Vietnamese people, this unit still allocates half or more to real estate, they encourage products with high population demand with small value. Next are stocks, then bank savings, the rest is reserved for bonds and gold.
At the seminar, Mr. Le Bao Long, Marketing Director of Batdongsan platform, said that the market has experienced a reversal point since the beginning of 2024 and is moving towards an exploration phase in the last months of the year. This year, the platform predicts that real estate may enter a consolidation phase.
The above assessment is based on the fact that the source of money participating in the market is improving, the most vibrant is in the Northern region. At the same time, the trio of amended Land, Housing and Real Estate Business Laws coming into effect will create a transparent legal corridor, helping the market develop sustainably. In addition, monetary policy is also forecast to remain steadfastly loose, interest rates may increase but only slightly.
In the coming time, Batdongsan believes that real estate may gradually recover. Expectations supporting the above forecast include economic and investment development potential, market supply recovery and price growth.
Meanwhile, FIDT continues to emphasize products with real demand. They believe that the real estate recovery in 2025 will be affected by three factors: the high prices in Hanoi, the progress of legal issues, and the real health of the economy. If these factors create too heavy an impact, the recovery may stall and the congestion will continue to last.
Discussing the stock market potential, Mr. Bui Van Huy, Director of FIDT Investment Research, said that VN-Index is moving sideways in a downward trend but may close above 1,300 points by the end of this year with a forecast price range of 1,320-1,540 points. Market valuation is still attractive when P/E (market price per share earnings) is only around 13 times or P/B (market price per book value) is around 1.7 times. Corporate profits in the entire market are forecast to increase by 16% with great potential coming from the banking, technology, and real estate sectors. Great opportunities from market upgrade are near.
“If we forget the current short-term pain, the long-term opportunity is huge,” Mr. Huy stated his opinion.
In the bond channel , after a crisis of confidence from 2022 to present, FIDT believes that the market has gradually recovered thanks to legal improvements. With the amended Securities Law, risks will be reduced, increasing the rights of bondholders. The trend this year is expected to be that businesses will increase new issuance with higher interest rates, while the situation of late payment of principal and interest will decrease. Liquidity of bond trading in the secondary market is also expected to recover.
Last year, global gold prices rose about 28% thanks to strong buying by central banks and investors, despite falling consumer demand. Low interest rates, a weak USD and geopolitical risks fueled this impressive performance. Domestically, SJC gold bars gained nearly 14% to VND84.2 million per tael, while gold rings increased sharply by 33% to close the year at VND84 million.
However, this year, according to Mr. Jack Nguyen, Director of Blockbase Investment Fund, precious metals may grow modestly, unless there is demand beyond expectations from central banks or financial crises stimulate safe-haven flows. On the contrary, higher interest rates can put pressure. The role of China is also very important, depending on trade, economic stimulus and global risks.
Regardless of the scenario, FIDT recommends only investing 5% of the portfolio in gold. They believe that investors should not buy more for now but do not need to sell soon, meaning they should only hold gold to ensure portfolio diversification and increase the support buffer for asset classes.
Source: Vietnam Insider