Vietnam’s First-Half GDP Growth Hits Highest Level in Nearly 20 Years

Vietnam’s economy posted its strongest first-half GDP growth since 2008, according to Finance Minister Nguyen Van Thang. Speaking at a government conference on socio-economic development with local authorities on July 3, Minister Thang announced that GDP for the first six months of 2025 is estimated to grow between 7.51% and 7.61%, surpassing earlier forecasts and marking the highest growth rate for the period in nearly two decades.

The government meeting, the first of its kind with the newly consolidated 34 provinces and cities operating under a two-tier administrative structure since July 1, highlighted Vietnam’s robust economic momentum. Minister Thang noted that key business and fiscal indicators have improved month by month and quarter by quarter. GDP growth for the second quarter alone is projected at 7.67%, lifting the overall first-half growth to 7.31% compared to the same period last year. By the end of June, updated estimates suggest an additional 0.2–0.3 percentage point increase, bringing growth to the 7.51–7.61% range.

At the government’s press briefing the same day, Minister and Government Office Chief Tran Van Son reiterated that Vietnam’s first-half GDP growth is the highest recorded since 2008, underscoring the country’s strong economic resilience.

Beyond GDP, other key indicators also showed positive performance. The manufacturing and processing sector expanded 10%, meeting the government’s scenario and achieving one of the few double-digit growth rates seen since 2011. Exports rose 14.4%, with a trade surplus estimated at USD 7.63 billion. Total retail sales of goods and consumer services grew 9.3%.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) registered in the first half exceeded USD 21.5 billion, up 32.6% year-on-year, the highest level since 2009. The number of newly established and reactivated businesses reached 152,700, 20% higher than the number of market exits. Notably, June saw nearly 24,400 new business registrations — the highest monthly figure on record — with total registered capital nearing VND 177 trillion.

Minister Thang highlighted that these achievements reflect the government’s timely and effective responses to global economic challenges, enabling Vietnam to sustain high growth despite downward pressures on the world economy.

On July 2, Vietnamese and U.S. negotiators reached a joint statement on a reciprocal trade agreement framework, following a phone call between General Secretary To Lam and U.S. President Donald Trump. Both leaders reaffirmed the countries’ comprehensive strategic partnership and discussed measures to strengthen cooperation, particularly in high-tech sectors. Minister Thang described the agreement as a “significant outcome” that builds confidence and optimism among businesses.

The Minister also emphasized that the official operation of the new two-tier local government structure marks a new chapter in administrative reform and institutional development. He noted that this transition has boosted public and business confidence, creating fresh momentum as Vietnam enters a new phase of growth.

Despite these positive results, Minister Thang cautioned that the economy still faces significant challenges in the period ahead. Achieving the 2025 growth target will require overcoming macroeconomic pressures, particularly in managing exchange rates and interest rates. He called on ministries and agencies to closely monitor the new administrative system, provide timely guidance, and resolve issues to ensure smooth operations. The State Bank of Vietnam, he said, should manage monetary policy tools, interest rates, and exchange rates in a flexible manner to support production, meet capital needs, and maintain stability in currency and foreign exchange markets.

The Ministry of Finance aims to increase 2025 budget revenue by 15% over projections while reducing regular expenditures by an additional 10% in the final months of the year. Authorities have also been tasked with closely monitoring the prices of essential goods and taking appropriate measures to prevent speculation and price manipulation, ensuring market stability.

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Source: Vietnam Insider