Vietnam Could Hit 10% GDP Growth in 2026, VinaCapital Says

Infrastructure spending, exports to the U.S., and a delayed consumption rebound could propel Vietnam into Asia’s fastest-growing economy

Vietnam may be on the verge of a rare growth breakout just as global investors are reassessing emerging Asia. According to a new macroeconomic outlook from VinaCapital, the country’s GDP could expand by as much as 10% in 2026 under a positive scenario—a pace that would place Vietnam among the world’s fastest-growing major economies at a time when global growth remains uneven.

The projection, published on January 22, reflects a convergence of forces that extend well beyond Vietnam’s borders: resilient U.S. demand for high-tech exports, renewed momentum in global tourism, and a delayed but powerful spillover from one of Southeast Asia’s largest infrastructure investment waves. For international investors, the message is clear—Vietnam’s growth story is entering a more structurally driven phase rather than a post-pandemic rebound.

According to Michael Kokalari, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis and Market Research at VinaCapital, growth in 2025 is being anchored by exports and tourism. Shipments of electronics and computers to the U.S. are expected to surge by roughly 80% year-on-year, while inbound tourism—particularly from China and India—is projected to jump more than 40%. These external engines have compensated for relatively subdued domestic consumption over the past two years.

Looking into 2026, VinaCapital expects Vietnam’s growth mix to normalize. Exports and consumption are likely to reinforce each other, while the delayed impact of heavy infrastructure spending in 2025 begins to flow through the broader economy. In its base case, GDP growth is forecast at around 8%. In a more optimistic scenario—supported by ample fiscal and policy space—growth could accelerate to 10%.

Domestic consumption, long viewed as Vietnam’s missing growth pillar, is expected to recover gradually rather than explosively. Households have rebuilt savings after nearly three years of caution, while incomes have risen about 6–7% annually. At the same time, equities and real estate prices are projected to climb more than 30% by 2025, creating a wealth effect that could unlock pent-up spending. Current support measures, including VAT reductions and higher personal allowances, add only an estimated 0.5 percentage points to GDP—suggesting significant room for more aggressive policy action if growth momentum falters.

Infrastructure investment remains the most strategic lever. Public investment disbursement surged roughly 40% in 2025 and is expected to rise another 20–30% in 2026. With public debt still below 40% of GDP and regulatory bottlenecks gradually easing, Vietnam has rare fiscal flexibility by emerging-market standards. Legal reforms are also reviving stalled real estate projects, while transport-oriented development is reshaping property demand around new infrastructure corridors—linking construction, consumption, and employment more tightly than before.

On the external front, VinaCapital remains constructive on exports despite rising concerns over U.S. trade policy. Vietnam’s shipments to the U.S. continued to grow in 2025, buoyed by demand for laptops and AI-related hardware. As long as tariff differentials with regional competitors stay within roughly 10 percentage points, Vietnam is expected to retain its edge thanks to competitive labor costs, tax exemptions, and a deepening role in global supply chains—factors that continue to attract foreign direct investment.

The broader implication is that Vietnam’s growth outlook in 2026 is no longer just a cyclical rebound story. It is increasingly tied to infrastructure-led productivity gains, structural export competitiveness, and a slow-burn revival of domestic demand. For global investors searching for scalable growth in a fragmented world economy, the more provocative question may not be whether Vietnam can reach 10%—but whether markets are fully priced for what that kind of growth would mean.

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Source: Vietnam Insider