VIETNAM HIGHLIGHTS IN 2018
Vietnam’s 2018 GDP growth reached 7.08%, higher than 6.8% of the consensus which make the country much more attractive for foreign investors.
Vietnam will post a trade surplus of USD7.21 billion in 2018, up 41% compare to 2017.
Vietnam has signed CPTPP, the third biggest FTA in the world, will start from 2019. This is expected to boost Vietnam’s economic growth with more transparent and open policies.
In November 2018, Vietcombank and VIB were permitted to apply the BASEL II. This is a milestone to the developments in application of international standard in Vietnam. In 2020, government expects 12-15 banks to apply the BASEL II.
VNIndex reached an all-time high of 1,204.3 on 9 April 2018.
Trading liquidity improved 23% from USD149,8mn/day in 2017 to USD183,88mn/day.
Vietnam’s stock market capitalization rose 13.5% against the end of last year, reaching a record high of VND3.98 quadrillion (USD170.93 billion), equivalent to 79.6 percent of the country’s GDP.
Foreign capital inflows into the stock market were estimated at USD2.8 billion USD, slightly lower than the USD2.92 billion recorded in 2017.
Improvement in derivatives: average number of contracts reached 58,613/day in 2018, 5.3x times compare to 2017
FTSE listed Vietnam market into the upgrade list: from frontier market to secondary emerging market. Although it would take few years to get into secondary emerging market list, investors which keen on this sector would start their research about Vietnam and buy shares when the time comes.
Vietnam surpassed Singapore as largest IPO fundraiser in Southeast Asia, raising USD 2.6bn across 5 deals.
The most popular one was Vinhomes (HSX: VHM) being able to raised USD1.35bn which is the biggest ever issue in Vietnam and the second biggest deal in Southeast Asia in 2018. Another big deal in 2018 was Masan Group (HSX: MSN) signing a strategic partner with SK Group – the company invested USD470mn to buy back around 110mn treasury shares of MSN which is equivalent to 9.5% of total voting shares.
GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS IN 2018
2018 China – US Trade War
China and the United States are engaged in a trade war as each country continues to dispute tariffs placed on goods traded between them. Donald Trump had promised in his campaign to fix China’s “longtime abuse of the broken international system and unfair practices”.
World Oil Price Fell Sharply In 2018
World oil prices plummeted below USD70/barrel (down more than 40% compared to the price of 115 USD / barrel in June) has caused many oil exporting countries to suffer.
This is the deepest decline in nearly 5 years in the world oil market. On November 27, the Vienna meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which controls nearly 40% of the world oil market, failed to reach an agreement on cutting production.
Energy demand is closely related to economic activity. In addition, this demand also increased sharply in the winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and during the summer in countries that use air conditioning. Sources of supply may be affected by weather (hindering the loading of oil tanks) and geopolitical turmoil.
CPTPP Signed And Takes Effect In 2019
At the end of October 2018, Australia became the sixth country to ratify the Comprehensive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) Agreement, meeting the necessary conditions for this agreement to be implemented from January 2019. .
The 11 country trade agreement is expected to promote economic growth, create more jobs, reduce poverty and improve the quality of life of the people of member states. This agreement will create one of the largest free trade blocks in the world with a market of about 499 million people and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of about USD10,100 billion, accounting for 13.5% of world GDP.