Southeast Asia is looking forward to returning Chinese tourists, but those with a lot of money just want to stay at home.

In fact, China’s $280 billion worth of tourists may not reappear for many months due to the prolonged complicated Covid-19 infection, restrictions on people entering from China as well as rising costs associated with the breakdown of the global tourism infrastructure.

“Fare prices are skyrocketing,” said Qin, who flew abroad at least three times a year before the pandemic broke out. Now, anyone who travels is also concerned about the problems of Covid-19 while the real cost is only for those who want to “burn money”. “It’s definitely not me,” Qin said.

China’s 1.4 billion people endured the strictest social distancing measures when the pandemic broke out. Most of them were unable to leave the country for three years as Beijing pursued a zero-tolerance approach to the epidemic. The pent-up demand has led many to believe that the reopening of China will spark a wave of global tourism.

However, that boom did not seem to be what one expected. Not many Chinese will choose to travel at all costs to make up for the time they have suffered over the past three years. The cost and comfort of travel is also taken into account, so a full recovery back to pre-epidemic levels could take several months.

The number of cases skyrocketed

One barrier limiting the boom of Chinese tourists is the skyrocketing number of Covid-19 cases. Millions of Chinese may be living with Covid-19 and the number could increase many times over when the Spring Festival begins – a time when hundreds of millions of Chinese people leave major cities to go home to celebrate the New Year.

Meanwhile, the size and scope of the outbreak in China has prompted other countries to tighten their entry controls, making Chinese reluctant to go. Among the countries that are conducting quarantines with Chinese people include Japan, South Korea and the United States.

Chen Xin, head of China’s transportation and leisure research at UBS, said: “Most consumers aren’t mentally ready to travel abroad as soon as they recover from Covid-19. We may have to wait until next year at the earliest to see the number of Chinese tourists return to pre-epidemic levels.”

Sharing the same view on the slow return of Chinese tourists, airlines are not in a hurry to increase their capacity. According to aviation analytics firm Cirium, flights leaving China in the first quarter were only 10.7% of pre-pandemic levels, although they are more than double what they were a year ago.

Meanwhile, the lack of options leads to extremely expensive fares to fly abroad. On average, outbound tickets cost around $556 as of January 3, an 18 percent increase over Christmas.

In this situation, the number of international flights is unlikely to increase significantly before the Lunar New Year (two weeks away). Holidays also make it take longer to apply for tourist visas and passports.

No one booked

Another factor that shows the slow recovery of tourism is the reluctance of travelers to book in advance. Contrary to a period when global tourist hotspots were overwhelmed by Chinese tourists, travel agencies now say they have difficulty convincing Chinese tourists to book trips in advance.

Previously, a 7-day trip from southwestern China to the Thai capital Bangkok cost 1,880 yuan ($274) in 2018, but now it has increased to 1,103 USD, about four times. It is the skyrocketing price that leads to many people asking but no one willing to put down the money to close the order.

This also causes countries in the region to lower their expectations from Chinese tourists. Thailand’s Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said the country is prepared to welcome 300,000 Chinese tourists in the first quarter of 2023 but only 60,000 is expected in January.

Hotel owners in Phuket, the southern island known for Thailand’s white sand beaches, are also expected to see few guests this Lunar New Year. Suksit Suvunditkul, president of the Hotel Association of Thailand and chief executive officer of Deevana Hotels and Resorts, said visitors returned but not the boom they had hoped for.

According to Mr. Suksit, there are very few flights coming from China and his hotel itself does not have many Chinese guests booking.

The Holy Land is still… sad

However, even if Chinese tourists do return, the once bustling resorts, attractions and night markets may not be ready for them. Many hotspots have been ravaged by the pandemic and will take a long time to recover.

The supply chain that caters to the needs of Chinese tourists, from buses and Chinese restaurants to Mandarin-speaking tour guides, has largely collapsed in the past three years. Labor shortages raging in places like Singapore and Thailand push businesses into a state where they don’t recover fast enough after a prolonged “great drought”. Millions of people who used to work in the hospitality industry have had to find another job.

Stanley Foo, founder and managing partner of Oriental Travel & Tours in Singapore, said: “Singapore is not ready for the sudden influx of people. I am most concerned about the shortage of human resources in the scenic spots. We can’t even handle the current number of guests.”

Meanwhile, the organizers of 0-dong tours are also feeling desperate. This is a form of tourism in which visitors do not have to pay or pay very little for the whole trip, but must regularly go to shopping and sightseeing centers, which sell super expensive items, during the whole trip.

“It took us 10 years to reduce the price of Thailand travel packages from $1,455 to $291. Those were years of effort with relationships in the airline, retail, hospitality and local shops. There was a whole supply chain but now it’s completely broken,” said Zhao, who used to have a team of 30 who operated zero-dong tours.

When foreign tours are expensive and not ready, Chinese tourists return to domestic attractions: shopping in Hainan, skiing in Harbin…. China’s domestic flights are also recovering much faster than international flights. And basically, they have returned to pre-epidemic levels.

Reference: Bloomberg

Source: Vietnam Insider