Vietnam is laying the groundwork to become one of the 25 largest economies in the world by 2039, according to a new forecast by the UK-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).
This ambition aligns with the country’s bold reform agenda aimed at transforming its private sector into a dynamic engine of growth, innovation, and global competitiveness.
A Vision Rooted in Reform: Resolution 68
At the heart of Vietnam’s economic trajectory is Resolution 68, a national strategy that underscores the critical role of the private sector. Michael Kokalari, Chief Economist at VinaCapital, notes that this policy aims to cultivate a high-quality, fast-growing, and globally competitive private economy.
The resolution emphasizes three core priorities:
- Strategic incentives for private sector development, especially nurturing large private conglomerates capable of integrating into global value chains.
- Level playing field between private enterprises and state-owned companies, fostering healthy competition.
- Accelerated equitization and restructuring of state-owned enterprises to expand the influence of the private sector.
By 2030, the Vietnamese government targets the development of at least 20 major private enterprises with global competitiveness, contributing to industrialization and technological leadership.
Breaking Barriers to Private Sector Growth
Despite its enormous potential, Vietnam’s private sector continues to face persistent obstacles: limited access to capital, bureaucratic red tape, and low digital adoption. Resolution 68 addresses these bottlenecks with a comprehensive reform package, aiming to:
- Reduce business procedures, costs, and time by 30%
- Shift from pre-approval controls to a post-audit regulatory model
- Simplify licensing and compliance frameworks
These steps are designed to liberate the entrepreneurial spirit of Vietnam’s small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), paving the way for innovation, job creation, and sustained economic expansion.
A Booming Economy with Global Potential
Vietnam’s economy is already on a strong growth trajectory. According to the World Bank, GDP is projected to grow by 6.8% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026. Public investment in infrastructure—including urban development, transportation, and energy—is expected to be a key driver of this growth.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Vietnam’s GDP will rise to $491 billion by 2025, ranking 34th globally. By 2029, that figure is forecast to climb to $627 billion, surpassing Thailand to become the fourth largest economy in Southeast Asia.
By 2039, CEBR estimates Vietnam’s GDP could reach $1.41 trillion, placing the country at 25th globally, ahead of major ASEAN economies such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore.
The Role of Financial Innovation
Vietnam’s central bank is also playing a crucial role in this transformation. According to Nguyen Duc Lenh, Deputy Director of the State Bank of Vietnam in Ho Chi Minh City, financial leasing is emerging as a powerful tool to provide capital to SMEs seeking to modernize equipment and processes.
As of April 2025, financial leasing debt had reached over VND 30.8 trillion ($1.2 billion) in Ho Chi Minh City alone, with more than 95% allocated to equipment and technology upgrades.
Resolution 68 also promotes three breakthroughs in credit access for private firms:
- Innovative lending models tailored for SMEs
- Standardization and digitization of financial data
- Development of non-traditional capital channels
The success of these efforts hinges on strong collaboration between businesses and lenders. Transparent data, responsible governance, and digital tools will allow credit institutions to assess borrowers more effectively, reduce risk, and support the private sector’s expansion.
A Roadmap to High-Income Status
Vietnam has set a long-term goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045, which will require sustained annual per capita growth of at least 5%. However, achieving this in the face of global trade disruptions, automation, and demographic shifts will require strategic policy execution, especially in areas vulnerable to climate change and technological disruption.
If current reforms continue, Vietnam is well-positioned to rise as an economic powerhouse, not just in Southeast Asia, but globally.
For more insights into Vietnam’s economic development and business opportunities, stay tuned to Vietnam Insider.
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Source: Vietnam Insider