By 2027, according to the IMF’s forecast, the GDP of Thailand and Vietnam will be equal at more than $690 (Thailand $692.6 billion and Vietnam $690.11 billion).
According to the IMF’s forecast, Singapore may drop to sixth in Southeast Asia in terms of economic size from 2024. At that time, Vietnam will still rank fourth, after Malaysia.
By 2025, Vietnam will rise to the third position in Southeast Asia in terms of economic size with a GDP of 571.12 billion USD. Behind Indonesia ($1630 billion) and Thailand ($632.45 billion) and ahead Malaysia ($556 billion), the Philippines ($523.53 billion), Singapore ($496.81 billion).
IMF data and forecasts
By 2027, the GDP of Thailand and Vietnam will be on par at more than $690 (Thailand $692.6 billion and Vietnam $690.11 billion).
IMF data and forecasts
Meanwhile, Malaysia’s GDP is forecasted to reach USD 633.63 billion in 2027, ranking fourth after Vietnam and the Philippines ranking fifth with $614.63 billion. Singapore was in sixth place with $543.84 billion at the time.
2020 is the first time that Vietnam has surpassed Singapore to become the 4th largest economy in Southeast Asia in terms of GDP. Previously, in 2019, Bloomberg quoted a report from DBS Bank as saying: “Vietnam’s economy has the potential to grow by 6-6.5% in the next decade, thanks to strong foreign investment capital and productivity growth in the coming years. If this growth rate is maintained, Vietnam’s economy will be larger than Singapore’s in 10 years’ time.”
At that time, DBS’s forecast that Vietnam’s economy could catch up with Singapore in 2029 was based on several assumptions: (1) Vietnam could grow by an average of 5.5% in the coming years and average about 6-6.5% in the medium term about 10 years. (2) The short-term growth rate of the working-age population in Vietnam is 1% and then gradually decreases to 0.5%. (3) The regional economies also maintained their inherent average growth, with Singapore at 2.5%.
But surprisingly for these experts, Vietnam overtook Singapore in terms of economic size a year later.
However, Vietnam’s ranking has dropped in 2021, after 1 year the economy was heavily affected by the 4th Covid-19 wave.
This year, Vietnam is expected to regain the 6-7% growth rate as before Covid-19, soon return to the 4th position and rise further in terms of the economic scale in the ASEAN region.
In early 2022, Business Times (Singapore) had an article “Roar of a new Asian tiger”, about Vietnam. In which, Vietnam has the opportunity to become the “new Asian tiger” and gives 6 examples. The first is the explosion of the wealthy class. The second is start-up funding. The third is the explosion of renewable energy. Fourth is the “thirst” for labor. Fifth is the development of the real estate market and finally the demand for large infrastructure.
@ Cafef
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Source: Vietnam Insider