From Trade War Winner to Tariff Target: Vietnam’s U.S. Export Reliance

Vietnam’s economy has become heavily reliant on exports to the United States, which last year made up 30% of its GDP—the highest proportion among America’s major trading partners—leaving it exposed to potential U.S. tariffs, according to a Reuters analysis of public data.

The Southeast Asian country saw a wave of foreign investment after the U.S.-China trade war kicked off in 2018 under the first Trump administration. Companies shifted production from China to Vietnam to dodge U.S. tariffs, turning it into a manufacturing hotspot. Big names like South Korea’s Samsung Electronics, Taiwan’s Foxconn, and American giants Apple, Intel, and Nike have set up shop there, producing goods largely destined for the U.S. market.

This influx of investment has transformed Vietnam into a key player in global supply chains and deepened its economic relationship with the United States, its former wartime enemy. Vietnamese customs data shows 29% of its exports now head to the U.S. In 2024, Vietnam exported $142.4 billion worth of goods to the U.S., making it the sixth-largest supplier after Mexico, China, Canada, Germany, and Japan, per U.N. trade stats.

Infrastructure is the big challenge for Vietnam, especially at its ports.

With a GDP of $468 billion (based on IMF figures), those U.S.-bound exports equaled roughly 30% of Vietnam’s economy—a bigger share than any other U.S. trading partner. Mexico comes close, with exports worth 27.6% of its GDP, and it’s already facing Trump’s threats of 25% tariffs. Meanwhile, China’s U.S. exports are just 2.5% of its GDP, and Japan’s are 3.7%.

Vietnam’s dependence leaves it at risk as the U.S., under President Donald Trump, gears up for reciprocal tariffs by April. Its massive trade surplus with the U.S.—the fourth largest after China, the EU, and Mexico, per U.S. data—could put it in the crosshairs. Add to that its higher tariffs compared to the U.S., VAT charges, non-trade barriers, and a spot on the U.S. currency manipulation watchlist, and experts like Sayaka Shiba from BMI say Vietnam checks all the boxes for tariff scrutiny.

The Communist-led nation’s export boom, paired with minimal imports from the U.S., only heightens its exposure as Washington eyes trade imbalances worldwide.

Related

Source: Vietnam Insider