The East Sea is forecasted to experience five storms and tropical depressions in the last three months of the year, surpassing the long-term average. Of these, 2-3 may make landfall in Vietnam.
According to the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Climate Change, the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) is currently neutral, with sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific averaging around minus 0.5 degrees Celsius from mid-August to early September. However, a shift to La Niña is predicted between October and December, with a 50-70% probability. As a result, the number of storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea and those affecting Vietnam could be at or above the long-term average, with 4-5 storms in the East Sea and 2-3 impacting the mainland.
The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting also anticipates La Niña conditions to persist throughout the last three months of 2024. This could lead to more complex storm patterns, with a 1.9 storm increase above the usual average, mainly impacting the Central and Southern regions. “Vigilance is required for storms and tropical depressions forming directly in the East Sea,” the center warned.
Increased Rainfall Expected
Northern regions are projected to experience 10-20% more rainfall than usual in October and November, with increases of 5-10 mm in mountainous areas. By December, however, rainfall is expected to decrease by 5-10 mm, remaining 20-40 mm below the long-term average.
The Central region is forecast to see significantly heightened rainfall over the next two months, with October and November rainfall 10-30 mm above average. In December, Quang Binh and Quang Tri are expected to receive 100-200 mm of rain, 10-15 mm above normal, while Thua Thien Hue to Quang Binh may see 250-500 mm, 30-60 mm higher than average. In the Ninh Thuan and Binh Thuan areas, rainfall could reach 30-80 mm, 15-30 mm higher than usual.
In the Central Highlands and Southern regions, rainfall in the next two months is expected to be 5-20% higher than normal. December forecasts predict 30-50 mm of rain in the Central Highlands, while the southern parts of the region may see 50-80 mm, 10-30 mm above the long-term average.
Floods May Become More Severe
The increased rainfall is likely to cause more severe flooding across the country. In the next three months, river water levels in the North are expected to rise 10-20% above average, with Tuyen Quang Lake on the Gam River and Thac Ba Lake on the Chay River potentially exceeding normal levels by 30-70%.
Between now and November, Thanh Hoa’s rivers may experience 1-2 floods, while rivers in Nghe An and Ha Tinh could see 3-4 floods. The downstream peak of the Ma River may reach flood level one, while the Ca and La Rivers could surpass level two. In December, water levels on these rivers are expected to gradually recede.
The Central region is expected to face 3-5 significant floods between October and December, particularly in October and November. Some rivers may see flood peaks reaching level three. Overall, flood activity in 2024 is expected to be near or above the historical average.
In the Southern Central region, 2-4 floods are anticipated from October to December. Rivers in Binh Dinh and Khanh Hoa could reach flood level two, with some areas exceeding level three. Rivers in Phu Yen, Ninh Thuan, and Binh Thuan are forecast to rise above level two, with upstream flows expected to increase by 20-50%.
From late September to December, the flow of the Mekong River into the Mekong Delta is expected to increase gradually. In September, the total flow is projected to be 5-10% below the long-term average, while from October to December, it is expected to align with the historical average.
Stronger Northeast Monsoon Expected Later in the Season
The Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Climate Change predicts that the intensity of the winter monsoon will vary this year. From November to December 2024, the northeast monsoon is expected to remain weak or close to the long-term average. However, from January to March 2025, the monsoon could intensify beyond normal levels. Severe cold spells are likely to occur in the core winter months, starting in mid-December.
October temperatures across the country are expected to be 0.5-1 degrees Celsius higher than the long-term average. By November and December, temperatures are likely to return to normal. In the North and North Central regions, temperatures may be approximately 0.5 degrees Celsius lower than the average for the last two months of the year.
Typhoon Yagi’s Impact
So far, the East Sea has experienced four storms this year, with Typhoon Yagi causing significant devastation across Northern Vietnam. The storm resulted in 299 deaths, 34 missing persons, and severe flooding of over 70,000 homes. Economic losses from Yagi amounted to VND 61 trillion, making it the most destructive storm on record for the region.
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Source: Vietnam Insider